Should Twins Extend Brian Dozier

(by Travis Aune MSU Founder)

Brian Dozier has become the leader on and off the field that the Twins have envisioned for him all along.  In the last two years, Dozier has hit 76 home runs and only has one year left on his contract.  There were rumors that he was on the market last offseason, but this offseason he is much more likely to be signed to an extension than to be traded.  In this article, I will discuss the pros and cons to extending Dozier, what an extension would look like, and finally what I would do if I were the Twins.  Please leave me your comments I am quite curious what other Twins fans think the Twins should do about Brian Dozier's future.

When talking about Brian Dozier the two things that are most his leadership and his power.  What goes unnoticed is although he will never be a gold glove second baseman it is undervalued.  I was curious what other people I trust think about whether the Twins should extend Dozier.   So asked the pros and cons to Seth Stohs one of the founders of Twins Daily.  I asked Seth whether the Twins should extend Dozier.  Seth replied, "I think that the conversation of an extension with Dozier needs to happen. Apparently, it would need to be something that both sides would be happy about. The reason to do it is that you've got an All-Star caliber second baseman who has provided a lot of power and WAR in the last four seasons."  I agree with Seth that you need to look to extend Dozier even though he is 30 years old, but he seems to be getting better with age.  His OPS seems to be going up every year.  The 2016 season was a career, but he followed that up with another excellent year.


I asked Brandon Warne of Zone Coverage and The Athletic whether he would extend Dozier and here is his response, "I think so. I'd want to tear up his current deal and do something like three years.
I know he's underpaid right now, so I think to give him three years, and more money keeps you from having to give him 4-5 years he would get in FA next year."  I really can't argue too much with what Brandon is saying, but I think it is a pipedream I don't think there is any way that Dozier would take a three-year deal.


As good as Brian Dozier is there are logical reasons to consider not extending him and make him a qualifying offer next winter.  I asked Seth some of the reasons that Thad Levine would be hesitant to offer a long-term extension.  Seth replied, "The only reason not to is if it is going to require a deal of five or more years. Of course, maybe will say that they can just move Jorge Polanco over to second base and call up Nick Gordon. That may happen. But the reality is that not all prospects make it. Or, the Twins may need a third base in the next couple of years, and one of those options could move there to get them in the lineup."  To me, there is only one reason that you don't make an extension, and that is if he wants a contract that would put him past age 35.


I asked Brandon the same question, and his answer was interesting.  According to Brandon, "He's a great leader and teammate. My only pause would be his age and the players in the system behind him:"  You can argue this because guys Nick Gordon, Jorge Polanco, Royce Lewis could eventually take over.  I just think that you can't just give up talent instead you making a deal.


That leaves the question what is the contract going to look like for me here is what a Dozier contract looks like.  I tear up 2018 and start the contract:
2018- 18m
2019- 20m
2020- 20m
2021- 20m


So the deal could end up being  4/78 and put him at age 34 when his contract is made.  He is such a big piece of the puzzle that I don't think it is an overpay.  I asked Seth what he would offer, " I thought that something like a four year, $65 million contract with an option for a fifth year that could make it worth $73 million makes sense to me. That takes him to his age-36 season."  I asked Brandon the same question, and he said, "Something like 3/60 but starting next year."


I don't think there is a logical reason not to sign Dozier to a long-term contract.  It comes down to what of deal you feel comfortable with.  Age 35 year is a red line for me, and I think the Twins should attempt not to sign someone for later than not.  There is no doubt about whether Dozier should be with the Twins long term.  If he wants 6-7 years then apparently that is a nonstarter, but if he is reasonable about a four-year deal than you possibly talk about the dollar part.  At this stage in his career, I think he has 2-3 years of elite play if not three-four years.  The perfect contract is four years in the 70-80 million range.  With a four year 72 dollar deal being a part contract in my mind.


What say you what do you do with Brian Dozier
Sign extension, trade, let become a free agent,  Leave a comment in the box to let me know what you would do as I am curious what everyone thinks on this issue.